Four Things You Might Like to Know Ahead of the Election

1. UKIP and the Greens will only get a handful of MPs

The insurgent parties get a lot of attention in the press and they will get a lot of votes. They will not, however, get many MPs.

UKIP will get between 1 and 5, the Greens 1 or 2. Love or loathe them, this will be deeply unfair given the number of ballots marked in their name (see table below).


 

2. The Liberal Democrats will not be wiped out

This will be a terrible election for the Lib Dems and they will do very badly. However, they will still have 20 or 30 MPs, far more than UKIP or the Greens who we tend to consider as the rising stars.

 


 

3. Your vote will be most effective if cast for the SNP

The following table shows a forecast of how how many votes each party is likely to get and how many MPs. The final column shows how efficiently those votes convert into MPs.

 

Party Vote MPs (min) MPs (max) MPs per %
Conservative 34% 243 324 8.4
Labour 32% 235 322 8.6
Liberal Democrats 13% 18 37 2
UKIP 11% 1 5 0.2
Greens 4% 1 2 0.3
SNP 3% 24 51 13

 

For every 1% of the vote that the Scottish National Party (SNP) receive, they will get 13 MPs. In contrast, UKIP will have a full 5% of the vote before they get just one MP.

(The data for the above table is taken from the excellent ElectionForecast website. I’ve adapted it slightly and calculated the final column myself).

 


 

4. No party will win a majority

Finally, neither the Conservatives or Labour will have enough MPs to form a government on their own. They will have to form a coalition with other parties or a minority government.

The latter would mean that they can’t pass any legislation on their own and would have to convince other parties to support any bill they propose. If a minority government was formed then there’s a good chance that we would have a second election within a year or two, to try and elect something more stable.

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